Costing Method for Programme Activities for the Creation of High-Tech Products

Prof. Dr. A.V. Leonov, Leading Research Worker, FSBE, 46 Central Research Institute, RF Ministry of Defense, Moscow, Russia, alex.clein51@yandex.ru

Dr. A.Yu. Pronin, Leading Research Worker, FSBE, 46 Central Research Institute, RF Ministry of Defense, Moscow, Russia,

pronin46@bk.ru

key words

high-tech products, forecasting, costs, program activities, forecast accuracy

References

If at an acceptable set of solutions, we specify a structure (the set of polynomials of varying degrees), then while minimizing the empirical risk elements within the elements structure will arise an additional opportunity to minimize on the elements the structure. This opportunity allows you to find the solution, giving a deeper guaranteed minimum of average risk than traditional ways of solving the problem. In the study, we use the method of structural minimization of the empirical risk, based on solving the problem of restoring the polynomial regression.
We have given the content of the method and the algorithm of its use that makes it possible to relate the complexity of the selected function with the volume of available data and more accurately restore characteristics that we are interested in. For the practical application of the proposed method two tasks are required. They are: setting the structure on the original set of polynomials of varying degrees and formation of the calculation algorithm with a given form of selected polynomial.
One of the areas of practical application of the proposed method can be forecasting the cost of programme activities on creation experimental models of high-tech products.

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